We attended a recent Gartner webinar entitled Emerging Technology Hype Cycle
2010: What is Hot and What is Not Tavon
Austin Jersey , presented by Jackie Fenn. Gartners Hype Cycles are
considered to be some of the most respected forms of research in the field of
technology. Here is a quick overview of some of the points covered during the
webinar. The webinar started off with a quick description of how what a Hype
Cycle is all about. To remind you, Hype Cycles are management models that help
organizations understand the landscape of technology maturity and markets, and
to decide which technology innovations to adopt, postpone or ignore, and when is
an appropriate time to adopt. The Gartner Hype Cycle model was first published
15 years ago T.J.
McDonald Jersey , and has grown to an annual release of between 70
and 80 Hype Cycles per year.
See the Hype Cycle explained below.
Jackie Fenn went on to discuss some specialized Hype Cycles, one of which was
the Cloud and Platforms Hype Cycle - including private cloud computing, cloud
computing, cloudweb platforms, mobile application stores Jared Cook
Jersey , activity streams and Internet micropayment systems. You
can see their positions on the 2010 Hype Cycle below.
As you can see, private cloud computing is making its way up the Technology
Trigger, towards the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Fenn explains that certain
industries (e.g. Governments) are realizing the benefits of cloud computing but
are concerned about the level of security for their data - enter the private
cloud.
She also makes the very valid point that most of the technologies included in
the Gartner Hype Cycles are not new - they are niche ideas that early-adopters
have already been using, which are moving towards becoming mainstream
technologies.
You can see cloud computing has crept past the Peak of Inflated Expectations
and is making its way down the curve towards the Slope of Enlightenment - in
other words, cloud computing is about to explode! How can we use this kind of
information to our advantage as an organisation? You will see on the graph above
that each technology is marked differently on the curve - this tells us the
timeframe in which Gartner expects the technology to reach mainstream adoption.
They have predicted that cloud computing will be mainstream within 2-5 years
time.
How else can we visualize and interpret this information? A priority matrix
is published alongside every Hype Cycle. Priority matrices are useful for
detailed technology prioritization - they are essentially riskbenefit matrices
which enable the user to look beyond the hype and assess technology
opportunities in terms of their relative impact on the enterprise and the timing
of that impact. Take a look at the Emerging Technologies Priority Matrix for
2010 below.
The vertical expectations axis has been replaced with benefit which helps us
decide which technologies to invest in. The top left hand corner contains high
priority technologies - where we should focus our early efforts and resources -
e.g. cloud computing Johnny
Hekker Jersey , cloudweb platforms, mobile application stores.
These are low-risk high-benefit technologies that are likely to become
mainstream within the next 5 years.
On the other side, in the top right hand corner, we have technologies with a
potentially very high return - but also a higher risk. As it stands in 2010,
these include autonomous vehicles and mobile robots. Do not expect to see these
technologies emerging anytime soon Greg
Zuerlein Jersey , but when they do, they have the potential to be
of high value. These are the type of technologies that are often ignored - so
keep an eye on them, as early-adopters are already moving with these things.
Cloud computing is to well-positioned to become a high priority for
organizations over the next few years as more and more people realize its
benefit and low-risk. When you compare its position in last years Hype Cycle
(see our previous post Gartners hype cycle for 2009: SAAS business intelligence
is on the rise) you can see the graduation of cloud computing along the curve.
You will also notice that some technologies such as private cloud computing were
not even on the Gartner radar last year, which shows just how quickly technology
is adopted and how fast it matures, reinforcing the importance of early
investment in such technology.
About we are cloud
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