Most of the articles I've written are one basic concept or theory discussed in
great length and detail be it at OffshoreInsiders or articles elsewhere. In
response to a question about crowd sizes and homecourt advantage-in this
particular case it was college hoops: There are endless quotes from players and
coaches alike who have spoken of which are the toughest arenas in which to play.
There have been many articles written by said participants. Back when Penn State
played in their gym
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advantages in all of hoops. Ditto for the West Virginia Coliseum. Sharp players
are very aware of homeroad dichotomy. The even more acute look beyond the stats
and scratch the surface. It stands to reason that home court advantages become
even bigger when a sell-out crowd is on hand. I've spoken in the past of a
handicapper who while I admit at times is blinded by what he calls intangibles.
I must confess that I used to laugh when he would go nuts over such things as a
team with their first sell-out in three years or first game on national
television, etc. But in hindsight, these nuggets can have some use, though
unlike the aforesaid handicapper, I prefer to use it as part of the
preponderance of evidence rather than basing a huge play on solely it. I have
found home court advantages are much less when students are on Christmas break
or particularly in the smaller conferences on Spring break because of the
condensed crowds. This has been especially true in the NIT where many teams host
games while students are on Spring break. Using revenge in handicapping: Revenge
is among the most misused angles in sports handicapping. It seems 95 percent of
the time I hear someone touting "revenge" it's predicting one team (almost
always a favorite or at least virtual pick 'em games) annihilating their
combatant But in yet another example of what separates the discerning from the
"dis-earning" is knowing where retaliation pays its biggest dividends. Year in
and year out
Tanner
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dog is avoiding being thoroughly embarrassed again. For example if an inferior
team lost by 40 points to a superior team and is getting 15 points in the
rematch, the dog is much more motivated to preserve one's dignity by avoiding
another whitewash. There is no better motivation to have a big underdog provoked
to keep a score respectable than to have previously been obliterated by their
opponent. Top teams taking out their frustrations following a loss: John Q.
Public loves betting on a top shelf team following a rare loss. In the elongated
NBA or MLB seasons, often it would be an embarrassing loss needed for a wake-up
call. We are not minimizing this consideration, but knowing the public embraces
this theory, oddsmakers can ready for the square who blindly bets it. However
win
Carl
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disregards this dogma after the ensuing game. Especially in college football,
basketball and the NBA, we have found top shelf teams heed the lesson and take
out their anger for several games. The premier teams did not become that way by
subscribing to a philosophy that one win cancels out a loss. There is more
spread value in riding preeminent teams two and three games following a loss. In
fact in our daily news and notes, so often we give you nuggets like "Since their
loss to Acme State
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