锘? Let me caution you that
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week, much less in 2035. If we add the uncertainty of estimating four centuries
worth of progress, clearly we are in the land of make-believe. But make-believe
can be fun (and instructive too)! Let's take a look. If longevity were to
improve by half a percent a year for 400 years, someone with a life expectancy
now of 75 years could live to be over 250! While some scientists cite 180 years
as the outside limit on the potential life span, who knows what might be learned
in the future? Perhaps people will grow their own new stem cells for cloned body
parts that will be replaced every 50 to 75 years. Let's assume a low-ball case.
Life expectancy for 60-year-olds grew by about 10 percent in the United States
during the time from 1900 to 2000. If that trend were to continue for another
four centuries, 60-year-olds would have average life expectancies of 120 years
of age! Sixty would become the new forty. Many people will see the possibility
of being aged and infirm for the bulk of one's much longer life. But that's
probably not what will happen. Huge advances are being made in replacing the
parts of our bodies that wear out the fastest, like knees
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becoming increasingly common. We also know a lot more about rehabilitation after
an injury or disease. Increasingly, those who replace body parts will find
themselves functioning better than before rather than less well. With weight and
exercise training, some 90-year-olds now report being more agile and active than
when they were 50. As for marriage, perhaps people who realize that a life
commitment to a spouse could be for more than 100 years will make the effort to
learn better how to build and nurture their relationships. Appreciating that
those years when children will dominate a marriage will be relatively few over
the length of the marriage may also improve both spouses' interest in having a
great relationship with one another. In addition, average family sizes keep
getting smaller. Perhaps tomorrow's norm will be to have one child rather than
two. That would certainly provide much more room for spouses to have primary
relationships with one another. People who have many marriages following
divorces often try to disguise that fact. Imagine what it would be like to have
had fifteen failed marriages over a much longer life. Perhaps the
unattractiveness of going through so many unpleasant endings to relationships
will encourage more interest in better marriages. Families are an area where
that 120 year life span will make the most difference. If marriage and
child-bearing occur at young ages, someone who has 30 descendants at 80 could
have 62 descendants at age 100 . . . and 126 at 120! Even those who marry and
give birth at more advanced ages could have 62 descendants at 120. This size in
the descendant population may also influence marriage length. Many parents hang
on until the youngest child is grown before separating or divorcing. Realizing
how many family events you will be attending with your former spouse, you may
find that it's a good idea to stay together at least until the great
grandchildren are grown. Clearly
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greatly changed if you now have dozens of youngsters to keep track of, mentor,
and cherish. The oldest generation will have a much greater role in creating a
sense of family among far-flung sets of hundreds of relatives (when you consider
cousins, great aunts, and great great uncles). Can you imagine having such a
family reunion? You also won't have to lose your parents at such a young age.
Where many people now suffer those losses in their 50s or 60s, your parents will
probably be with you into your 80s or 90s, even if they die somewhat
prematurely. Friendship will also take on new meaning when that kid next door
can become someone you'll know for 115 years. If you make one good new friend a
year for life, you can have so many good friends that it would take you weeks
just to have couple-on-couple dinners with each one. Homes may have to become a
lot bigger to accommodate parties for friends and visits by the great great
grandkids. Here's what home ownership progression might look like: You live in a
small place when first married. You move to a bigger place with a yard in a good
school district at the time when you have your one or two kids. After 25
years
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v italia , you move into a small place again. After 10 to 15 years
more, you buy a bigger place than you've owned before where the kids and
grandkids can come visit and fun together. Then, in another 25 to 30 years, you
need to buy another place that's twice as large! If your working life can extend
for 80 to 100 years, it's also a good time to think differently about both
careers and education. Not only will your knowledge become obsolete every 6
years or so if you don't work at it, but your incentive to stay in the same
field will diminish. It won't be much more work than keeping up with your field
to go learn some other business, profession, or line of work. Longer lives will
also mean that guarding against accidents
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important to people. Manufacturers, service providers, and governments will
probably have to vie for providing the safest environments and assistance. Homes
will come equipped with gear to make major accidents all but impossible. With so
many more years to gain the benefits of compounding the value of a person's
investments, we can expect that it will be easier than ever to accumulate
substantial wealth. Buy one piece of property on a lake somewhere, and in an
increasingly crowded world you can sit back and enjoy the thought that they
aren't building much more lakefront property any more. Safe bets like spots
overlooking Central Park in Manhattan and Waikiki beach views from up the
mountain in Honolulu .