The Edmonton Oilers havent made the playoffs in eight seasons, and it appeared that they might be ready to take a step forward in 2013-2014, but they fell flat once again.
Jerseys Cheap Basketball . Off-Season Game Plan looks at an Oilers team that ought to be feeling a sense of urgency, as they have top-end talent approaching their prime years and need to get on the winning track quickly. Lots has been made of the Oilers stocking up on talent through the draft and its that talent that brings about expectations. If Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hadnt shown promise, then maybe the Oilers would be just a team adrift. This isnt to suggest that the Oilers are on the cusp of being great, because weve been down this road too many times to place those expectation, but if GM Craig MacTavish can bring in some pieces that will help improve the teams defensive play, then there is at least some reason for optimism. Expectations were in place last season, but goaltending put the Oilers in an early hole. Thats been addressed with the additions of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth. They still have a talented group of young forwards, some of whom have more potential to realize, but if they could round out the group with solid two-way players, they could be on the right track. The blueline, however, is a prime area of concern, and its not easily rectified. "We need a few pieces that can really move this thing along," MacTavish told the Edmonton Sun, "And in my mind Id like to add a very high end defenceman." Maybe the Oilers could be willing to offer their first-round pick, No. 3 overall, if it would get them the number one defenceman they sorely need, but that may not be enough. Teams that have top-tier defencemen dont trade them, so for the Oilers to make that kind of deal -- to convince a team to move one -- they might have to go bigger and bolder. After missing the playoffs every year since 2006, maybe its time for the Oilers to go bigger and bolder. The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- Corsi, adjusted for zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates, hits, blocked shots, penalty differential and faceoffs. Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be around 70, stars will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at the top of the 2013-2014 regular season ratings at 87.12. Salary cap information all comes from the indispensable www.capgeek.com. CF% = Corsi percentage (ie. percentage of 5-on-5 shot attempts), via www.extraskater.com. GM/COACH Craig MacTavish/Dallas Eakins Returning Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Taylor Hall 78.75 75 27 53 80 44.4% $6.0M Jordan Eberle 73.48 80 28 37 65 46.3% $6.0M David Perron 73.24 78 28 29 57 45.7% $3.813M Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 68.32 80 19 37 56 44.9% $6.0M Sam Gagner 65.28 67 10 27 37 44.2% $4.8M Mark Arcobello 64.61 41 4 14 18 48.1% $600K Boyd Gordon 63.19 74 8 13 21 42.1% $3.0M Nail Yakupov 61.59 63 11 13 24 44.9% $925K Matt Hendricks 58.05 77 5 2 7 41.6% $1.85M Jesse Joensuu 57.59 42 3 2 5 43.8% $950K Free Agent Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Ryan Smyth 62.82 72 10 13 23 45.3% UFA $2.25M Ryan Jones 56.82 52 2 4 6 42.4% UFA $1.5M Luke Gazdic 53.42 67 2 2 4 36.8% RFA $635K There was an issue with his possession numbers, and he recorded points on a ridiculous percentage (53 points on 54 goals) of 5-on-5 goals for, but Taylor Hall is a superstar that isnt regarded as such because the Oilers have yet to win. Over the past two seasons, as a 21 and 22-year-old, Hall has averaged 1.08 points per game. Since 2000, the list of forwards to record a higher points-per-game at that age includes Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos and Nicklas Backstrom. Halls point production is better than Patrick Kane, Joe Thornton and John Tavares at the same age, so hes in top-tier company and if his team manages to control the puck more consistently, the numbers can still get better. After a breakout year in 2011-2012 and a regression year in 2013, Jordan Eberle settled in with a nicely productive 65-point season. Over the past three seasons, Eberle has 178 points, which ranks 17th in the league (Hall is 14th), so theres plenty of room for him to play a top-line role. At the same time, presuming that Hall is untouchable, Eberle could be the most attractive trade chip the Oilers have if they are looking at a deal for a number one defenceman. After coming over in an off-season trade with St. Louis, David Perron finished with a career-high 28 goals and 57 points. Hes been healthy, missing only four games in the past two seasons, and provides another legitimate scoring threat. He hasnt burst through in a big way, yet, but 21-year-old Ryan Nugent-Hopkins put up a career-high 56 points, as he was asked to handle fewer defensive zone starts compared to 2012-2013. Nugent-Hopkins hasnt been as flashy as Hall or Eberle, but plays a sound two-way game and thats not something that should be overlooked on a team that needs to be more reliable. Sam Gagner had a breakout season in 2012-2013, scoring 38 points in 48 games (a career-best 0.79 points per game), but then had his jaw broken before the start of last season and, strangely enough, struggled to get on track after that. After a relatively unlucky year, though, Gagner is a decent candidate for a bounceback season in 2014-2015. Veteran checking centre Boyd Gordon was brought in to relieve some defensive pressure, and no one started a lower percentage of their shifts in the offensive zone, so he does the heavy defensive lifting that, theoretically, should free up others to handle the offensive responsibilities. The first two seasons of Nail Yakupovs career have brought ups and downs, and his perceived value is probably at a low point due to a season of unfavourable percentages. PDO, which measures 5-on-5 shooting and save percentages when a player is on the ice (and is considered a gauge for who has been lucky or unlucky), has Yakupov ranked mostly among fourth-line grinders, who legimiately shouldnt expect their on-ice shooting percentage to be above average. There are no guarantees, of course, but 20-year-old Yakupov still has the high-end potential to be a big scorer, which makes it all the more difficult to do anything other than wait on his emergence. In their quest to add more grit to the fourth line, the Oilers traded for Matt Hendricks, taking on an inflated contract that pays $1.85-million per season for the next three years. Hendricks is undeniably tough, but wasnt effective last season and somehow played more than 14 minutes a game for the Oilers. That might fit the salary, but it doesnt match his production. Big winger Jesse Joensuu was looking for a fresh start after failing to stick with the Islanders and he got a chance with the Oilers last season. While he produced very little, there were also extenuating circumstances in terms of zone starts and horrific percentages that could result in something better. But the 26-year-old, who has 20 points in 109 career games and didnt play after March 14, also may not be part of the plans going forward. Luke Gazdic was handed a full-time role as the Oilers enforcer and no one in the league played fewer minutes while also registering more penalty minutes than Gazdics 127. He ranked third in the league with 15 fighting majors, so he can handle the rough stuff. Its the actual hockey playing that poses problems, as he had the worst possession stats in the league. Smallish forward Mark Arcobello couldnt hold down a regular spot with the Oilers, though his possession numbers might have warranted it, and he crushed the AHL with 28 points in 15 games, earning a one-way deal for next season. Will that land him a regular spot in the lineup, or will it make Arcobello a well-paid minor-leaguer? There has been lots of talk about the Oilers moving their first-round pick, third overall, and thats certainly in play if they could get a premier defenceman, but if the Oilers somehow decide to hold the pick and have their choice of one of Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett or Leon Draisaitl, well, that would be another quality asset around which to build. Returning Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Andrew Ference 61.55 71 3 15 18 42.9% $3.25M Martin Marincin 59.37 44 0 6 6 47.5% $730K Free Agent Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Justin Schultz 67.40 74 11 22 33 42.9% RFA $925K Philip Larsen 65.78 30 3 9 12 42.7% RFA $1.025M Jeff Petry 63.49 80 7 10 17 46.7% RFA $1.75M Mark Fraser 59.56 42 1 1 2 42.3% UFA $1.275M Anton Belov 58.88 57 1 6 7 46.3% UFA $925K Brought in as a free agent to stabilize the defence, Andrew Ference played his highest minutes per game (21:04) since 2008-2009 and he was asked to handle a tougher workload, with more defensive zone starts and facing higher-calibre competition. Its asking a lot for 35-year-old Ference to handle this workload going forward, but he is one steady influence. Once the Oilers called up Martin Marincin, they had the making of a quality second defence pairing with Marincin and Jeff Petry. Marincins relative possession numbers were very good, while facing quality opposition, so the lanky 22-year-old is a promising piece for next season. Highly-touted coming out of the University of Wisconsin, Justin Schultz has put up 60 points in 122 career games, which puts him in pretty good company offensively. The trouble is, Schultz gets eaten up in terms of puck possesson. Thats not entirely on him, but Schultzs game to this point doesnt warrant the kind of ice time that hes been getting. If hes going to keep playing 23 minutes a night, he simply has to be better; the other alternative being that the Oilers find others to take smoe of that ice time and limit Schultzs exposure. Philip Larsen is a finesse blueliner, who has been hanging around the fringe of the lineup. Hes mobile and a fine puck-mover, but hes not particularly physical and tends to get squeezed out of bottom pair minutes by bruisers. Thats not to suggest that his game warrants more; its just a reflection of what has happened as he battles for ice time. Jeff Petry emerged as one of the Oilers most reliable defencemen last season, particularly once paired with Marincin. Petry has good size, can skate and move the puck, and was one of 22 defenceman to combine for at least 300 hits plus blocked shots. Yes, that means the Oilers didnt have the puck so much, but they actually had it more with Petry and Marincin than any other time. For all the improvement needed on Edmontons defence, they could do worse than pressing forward with Petry and Marincin playing in a shutdown role. In addition to prospects Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers also have to consider what kind of deals they might be able to make to secure a top pair defenceman. There are long-in-the-tooth free agents (Andrei Markov, Dan Boyle, Stephane Robidas) that have played top pair minutes, or the likes of Matt Niskanen and Mark Fayne, who had strong seasons, but dont have the same pedigree. Or, maybe the Oilers can swing that blockbuster trade. There have long been rumours about Edmonton trading one of their top young forwards and/or the third pick in the draft to bring in someone who can handle the big minutes, the tough minutes, for the Oilers. Returning Goaltenders Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit Ben Scrivens 76.91 40 16 16 4 2.55 .922 $2.3M Viktor Fasth 58.53 12 5 4 2 2.82 .903 $2.9M The Oilers went into the 2013-2014 season with expectations that Devan Dubnyk could give them at least average goaltending -- not unreasonable given his track record -- but when that plan went completely awry, Edmonton started seeking out solutions and made a couple of moves to acquire goaltenders that can be part of the future for the franchise. 27-year-old SOilers defence that has to get better immediately, as in, they may not be inclined to see a teenager take some lumps in a spot that c 3rd - Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Leon Draisaitl FREE AGENCY According to www.capgeek.com, the Oilers have approximately $42.5M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 13 players. Check out my possible Oilers lineup for next season on Cap Geek here. Needs: Three forwards, No. 1 defenceman, depth defencemen. What I said the Oilers needed last year: One top nine forward, depth forwar the attacking threat. On Wednesday evening at Saputo Stadium just before kickoff rather aptly a "Through Thick and Thin" banner was unveiled in the stands. Patience has been tested, perseverance is now required. Noel.Butler@BellMedia.ca @TheSoccerNoel DC United Vs Montreal Impact live on TSN690 [TSN690.ca] Saturday. Kick Off 7:00pm – Rick Moffat [@RickMoffat] and Grant Needham [@GrantNeedham] with your call.
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